lupusintabula ([info]lupusintabula) wrote,
2006-07-07 11:13:00

Day Three

Loud howls came from the edge of town during the night. When morning comes, its obvious that the Winery was the focus of the Werewolves attention in the night. Several barrels lay smashed open, some splattered with the blood of [info]giantlaser. A stunned silence falls over the assembled mob as they find scattered tarot cards and what could only be a smashed crystal ball.

As they return sadly to the Village Square, the Launderer [info]gjunell looks around and asks, "Has anyone seen the Baker this morning?"

The disheartened group stops at [info]amphitrite27's Bakery and finds the door slightly open. Peering in, the Musketeer gasps and back up a few steps. On the floor lies the green swollen remains of a Werewolf, desperately clutching its throat even in death. The Witch has struck true with her poison.

Summary: [info]giantlaser the SEER is DEAD. [info]amphitrite27 the WEREWOLF is DEAD, victim of the WITCH's POISON.

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  • 91 comments

[info]lupusintabula

July 7 2006, 18:28:39 UTC 5 years ago

Admistrative note: [info]gorillashaman, your reader seems to not be picking up the last five posts from yesterday.

[info]gorillashaman

July 7 2006, 18:34:04 UTC 5 years ago

Yeah, it hiccupped. I've fixed the immediate cause, now I'm looking at making sure it doesn't reoccur again.

[info]lupusintabula

July 7 2006, 18:34:43 UTC 5 years ago

Administrative Note 2

This will be a "long" day, ending whenever I feel like it on Monday.

[info]evilben

July 7 2006, 18:36:49 UTC 5 years ago

Hmmmm

No idea who to vote for today. Guess I abstain untill after work tonight when some more interaction has happened.

[info]the1mouse

July 7 2006, 18:46:43 UTC 5 years ago

Sorry I missed yesterday - rehearsal ran late and then I overslept.

Interesting that the witch was able to identify a wolf so immediately. Must have been the afflicted?

Looking back at [info]giantlaser's statements, I am willing to bet that [info]gjunell is a villager, and it is probably likely that [info]gpeefalt is a wolf.

I vote gpeefalt until further notice.

[info]parzanese

July 7 2006, 18:48:20 UTC 5 years ago

I agree, vote gpeefalt.

holy shit, we agree on something!

[info]the1mouse

5 years ago

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[info]perkyevil

July 7 2006, 19:03:46 UTC 5 years ago

Sorry gpeefalt, but he did implicate you. Vote gpeefalt

[info]gpeefalt

July 7 2006, 20:47:48 UTC 5 years ago

I have no idea why he would implicate my if he had scanned me, as I wouldn't show up as a wolf in any way shape or form. Since the witch still has her saving potion I am going to reveal myself. I am the other seer. amphitrite27 was the afflicted as I scanned her on day 2 and she came up villager. parzanese is a wolf.

vote parzanese

[info]gpeefalt

5 years ago

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[info]daedalus4096

5 years ago

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[info]the1mouse

5 years ago

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[info]gpeefalt

5 years ago

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[info]lupusintabula

5 years ago

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[info]gpeefalt

5 years ago

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[info]gorillashaman

5 years ago

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[info]gorillashaman

5 years ago

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[info]gpeefalt

5 years ago

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[info]daedalus4096

5 years ago

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[info]gpeefalt

5 years ago

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[info]the1mouse

5 years ago

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[info]gorillashaman

5 years ago

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[info]lupusintabula

5 years ago

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[info]gorillashaman

5 years ago

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[info]the1mouse

5 years ago

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[info]gorillashaman

5 years ago

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[info]the1mouse

5 years ago

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[info]parzanese

5 years ago

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[info]gorillashaman

July 7 2006, 19:07:58 UTC 5 years ago

vote [info]gpeefalt, due to seer implication.

Also, I think it is neat that one of the wolves was someone high on my thing. I think I'm getting better at this.

Also, I have to assume that since the witch did not step forward, that the afflicted was activated on night one.

That said, here is my new suspicion list:

blackbeardin 52%
daedalus4096 46%
gpeefalt 37%
gjunell 37%
parzanese 31%
evilben 31%
perkyevil 28%
the1mouse 38%

[info]parzanese

July 7 2006, 19:12:42 UTC 5 years ago

is the1mouse really 38% and simply out of order or is she much lower?

[info]gorillashaman

5 years ago

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[info]daedalus4096

July 7 2006, 19:15:09 UTC 5 years ago

Well, that was both very good and very bad. At least the witch had a good aim. I'm going to be out of town all weekend without internet access, so I'm simply going to make my vote now to make sure it gets in.

Vote [info]chessiekitty
Stop Cthulhu Kitty before it's too late!

[info]parzanese

July 7 2006, 19:19:38 UTC 5 years ago

um, she was lynched yesterday . . . I guess you could go back in time though :)

[info]lupusintabula

5 years ago

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[info]maniakes

5 years ago

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[info]chessiekitty

5 years ago

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[info]the1mouse

5 years ago

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[info]gorillashaman

5 years ago

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[info]lupusintabula

5 years ago

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[info]gorillashaman

5 years ago

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[info]daedalus4096

5 years ago

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[info]parzanese

5 years ago

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[info]chessiekitty

5 years ago

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[info]daedalus4096

5 years ago

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[info]gorillashaman

July 7 2006, 20:31:47 UTC 5 years ago

rules clarification?

If [info]amphitrite27 had been the afflicted, and she had been activated on night one, would her death have shown up as simply "wolf" or would it have shown up as "afflicted"?

[info]lupusintabula

July 7 2006, 20:34:28 UTC 5 years ago

Re: rules clarification?

She would show up as WEREWOLF. AFFLICTED are only revealed after the game is over.

[info]gorillashaman

July 7 2006, 20:35:34 UTC 5 years ago

Also, check out http://cuddlepuddle.org/~adam/ljgames/lupusintabula/143.html#2318

[info]giantlaser seems to imply [info]gjunell is a normal villager. It makes sense, given their personal histories, that that seer would try to spy on that player early.

[info]gorillashaman

July 7 2006, 23:37:48 UTC 5 years ago

Here's a slightly more scary thought...

[info]parzanese and [info]gpeefalt are both wolves. We lynch [info]parzanese, and discover he's a wolf. This gives the witch the thought that [info]gpeefalt really is the seer. The wolves eat [info]gpeefalt (typical [info]parzanese style gambit), who is saved by the witch. [info]gpeefalt then strings us along until we're all eaten and lynched. The real seer doesn't want to come out just yet, because they're still looking for that last wolf.

And of course from that more "wine in front of me" arguments ensue.

In any even, the wolves have been INCREDIBLY lucky this game. Afflicted on night one and a Seer on night two.

[info]gpeefalt

July 8 2006, 01:39:28 UTC 5 years ago

If I'm a wolf, I can't be eaten.

[info]gorillashaman

5 years ago

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[info]gpeefalt

5 years ago

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[info]lupusintabula

5 years ago

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[info]daedalus4096

5 years ago

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[info]parzanese

5 years ago

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[info]gorillashaman

5 years ago

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[info]parzanese

5 years ago

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[info]parzanese

July 8 2006, 02:43:20 UTC 5 years ago

give me a break . . . you're not going to believe this crap . . . what else can a wolf do at this point but claim to be seer? he was outed by a KNOWN seer, giantlaser, and now has everyone ganging up on him . . . the only recourse he has left is to claim seerdom and try and take me out thus benefiting the two remaining wolves (since it seems we all are in favor that the afflicted has been found) . . . as we know from past wolves killing me seems to be one of their highest priorities in these games . . .

these are the facts:

a KNOWN seer, giantlaser voted for gpeefalt . . .
I, an unknown and past hated enemy of wolves everywhere have so far not voted for a single known villager . . .
a claimed seer, gpeefalt is now trying to state that I am a wolf to save his skinny hide . . .

give me a break, I'm not buying it . . . nor should you . . .

[info]gpeefalt

July 8 2006, 04:21:20 UTC 5 years ago

Just because giantlaser picked me does not mean he scanned me. Most likely he scanned a villager and is guessing.

I scanned parzanese as a wolf. That must mean he is either a wolf or Ralph Nader. If the latter, my apologies.

[info]parzanese

5 years ago

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[info]gpeefalt

5 years ago

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[info]gorillashaman

5 years ago

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[info]evilben

July 8 2006, 07:14:26 UTC 5 years ago

Eh. seems fairly cut and dry at this point. Don't think Joe's a werewolf. Call it a gut feeling (of course, I could be wrong).

VOTE GPEEFAULT

[info]gorillashaman

July 8 2006, 14:22:28 UTC 5 years ago

At this point I think they're both wolves.

[info]evilben

5 years ago

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[info]the1mouse

5 years ago

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[info]parzanese

5 years ago

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[info]daedalus4096

5 years ago

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[info]gorillashaman

5 years ago

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[info]gorillashaman

July 8 2006, 14:48:07 UTC 5 years ago

btw, here's my revised suspition list. (insert typical caveat that this is here in case I die, not to convince anyone of anything right now)(also, note that even I'm not voting according to these numbers)

blackbeardin	56%
daedalus4096	43%
gjunell	        41%
parzanese	35%
the1mouse	34%
gpeefalt	32%
perkyevil	32%
evilben	        26%

[info]parzanese

July 8 2006, 17:58:43 UTC 5 years ago

ok I get:
perkyevil 30%
maniakes 0%
evilben 31%
daedalus4096 30%
gorillashaman 39%
gpeefalt 31%
blackbeardin 39%
chessiekitty 0%
amphitrite27 100%
parzanese 22%
gjunell 39%
the1mouse 39%
giantlaser 0%

hmm, will have to refine this more.

[info]parzanese

5 years ago

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[info]parzanese

5 years ago

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[info]gjunell

July 8 2006, 18:36:06 UTC 5 years ago

VOTE GPEEFAULT

The Launderer, being suffused with the vapor of Lye and scared
out of his mortal skin, feels a good consensus forming and joins
in readily.

But what if we're wrong? The death of an innocent would weigh
heavily upon his soul. But not as heavily as a hairy clawed arm
upon his opening chest.

[info]blackbeardin

July 8 2006, 21:37:44 UTC 5 years ago

I'm not so sure that both [info]parzanese and [info]gpeefalt are wolves. Unless there's telepathy in this game, they would have had to set up that strategy last night, without knowing for certain that [info]giantlaser was a seer which seems a unlikely.

[info]blackbeardin

July 8 2006, 21:49:48 UTC 5 years ago

should have said "...seems a little unlikely"

I'm a little more inclined to think [info]parzanese is a wolf but, given his status, I don't think [info]giantlaser would've implicated someone he was unsure about two days in a row. So, I'll have to vote [info]gpeefalt.

[info]blackbeardin

5 years ago

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[info]blackbeardin

5 years ago

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[info]lupusintabula

5 years ago

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[info]gorillashaman

July 9 2006, 03:44:28 UTC 5 years ago

Ok peoples voting for [info]gpeefalt, you're being silly. Here's why...

10 players left, 3 of whom are wolves. Assume he is the seer. Which way are the wolves going to throw the dogpile?

[info]gpeefalt's claim that [info]parzanese is a wolf is EASILY testable. [info]parzanese has NOT stood up and claimed any specialist role, which tells me at worst he's safe to lynch. If we lynch [info]parzanese and it turns out he's RALPH NADER, then we have a guarantee that [info]gpeefalt is the seer. If we lynch [info]parzanese and it turns out he's a villager then we have a guarantee that [info]gpeefalt is a wolf. If [info]parzanese is a wolf, the seer has an extra night of spying, regardless of whether the seer actually is [info]gpeefalt or not.

Also, historically, the first person to stand up and say "don't lynch me, I'm the seer" has (shock and surprise) turned out to be telling the TRUTH.

So you've got two choices here:

lynch [info]gpeefalt: This risks LOSING THE SEER. Hell, I'll admit I don't trust him, but there is the outside chance he's telling the truth.

lynch [info]parzanese: This risks losing NOTHING, and potentially confirms or strengthens our knowledge about who the seer really is. At the very least it GUARANTEES that the seer gets an extra night of scrying no matter who he is!

[info]gorillashaman

July 9 2006, 15:22:31 UTC 5 years ago

I take it all back. The most likely scenario is (I think) that [info]gpeefalt is a wolf. Tyler would not have implicated him two days running otherwise.

unvote parzanese
vote gpeefalt

[info]gorillashaman

5 years ago

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[info]gjunell

July 9 2006, 16:09:45 UTC 5 years ago

gorillashaman says there are 10 players, 3 of whom are wolves.

But

"amphitrite27 the WEREWOLF is DEAD, victim of the WITCH's POISON."

So there are two wolves, not three.

[info]gorillashaman

July 9 2006, 19:26:02 UTC 5 years ago

Greggo...

There were three wolves and one afflicted at the start of the game. On night one, nobody died. There are only three possibilities here:

a) the witch was attacked, and chose to use her healing potion on herself

b) the afflicted was attacked, and converted t oa werewolf

c) a normal villager was attacked, and the with chose to save them

If (a) were true, then the wolves would know who the witch was. At that point, the witch should have come out, because the wolves would know who the witch was and there is no point in staying hidden. No person announced themselves as a witch on day two, therefore I must assume (a) is not true.

If (c) were true, then the normal villager attacked should have come out. The witch could confirm or deny the veracity of the claim. A wolf would not falsely claim they had been attacked, because the witch would know they were lying, and would poison them the following night. Since no normal villager came out on day two, I must assume (c) is false.

This leaves only (b); that the afflicted was attacked and converted to a werewolf, giving us a total of 4 werewolves. The corollary to this is that the witch still has a healing potion left, and this is confirmed by the fact that she has not yet come out.

Why the witch chose to poison amphitrite27 on night 2 is a mystery to me. I looked and looked, but couldn't find anything particularly wolfy in her behavior. She did show up as one of the top three on my "susptions" list, but I'm not convinced that would be enough for the witch to choose her to poison.

At any rate, if (b) is false, then there are only two wolves left, and the witch has used both potions, in which case there is no harm now in the witch coming out. But she has not yet come out, which indicates to me that she still has a potion left and (b) must be true.

SO... three wolves plus the afflicted minus one wolf leaves... three wolves.

[info]gorillashaman

5 years ago

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[info]daedalus4096

5 years ago

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[info]gorillashaman

5 years ago

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[info]daedalus4096

5 years ago

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[info]parzanese

July 10 2006, 04:25:33 UTC 5 years ago

Well I'm going to be on the road all day tomorrow morning heading down to LA, so will probably miss the lynching . . . that being said, please don't lynch me :)

as to coming out as a special . . . why? why would I? and why should I? both the witch and the "seer" haven't come out, and really there's no reason for them to anyway, it'd just paint a target on them and would open things up to wolf imitation, especially since the witch no longer has any poison . . .

additionally you may remember when I was a mason, it took me forever to come out as a special, and I've claimed to be several specials in other games such as the seer (and other roles) in the last game . . . so I see no reason why claiming to be a special would help in anyway . . .

so have fun tomorrow morning and hope that I don't get stuck in a lot of traffic . . .

[info]gorillashaman

July 10 2006, 14:54:02 UTC 5 years ago

fricken indecision

unvote gpeefalt
vote parzanese

[info]gorillashaman

July 10 2006, 15:53:54 UTC 5 years ago

I'm more inclined to believe [info]gpeefalt; he's been voting for [info]parzanese since day one.

[info]lupusintabula

July 10 2006, 18:03:03 UTC 5 years ago

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