lupusintabula ([info]lupusintabula) wrote,
2005-10-24 11:06:00

Day 6

"Godless heathens!" Shouts Sir Evilben. "I shan't stand idly by whilst you doom the Village!" He draws his sword, prepared to cut down the Werewolves in his midst, only to be hit on the back of the head with a rock. The Vintner Giantlaser scowls down at his unconscious form, dropping the blooded rock to the ground.

Evilben only awakens to scream his last into the dusky, uncaring sky.

*********************************************

The wan morning sun brings more bad news. The Vintner has been eaten in the night by Werewolves. In addition, a blood spattered vial is found outside his house. The Spinner Chessiekitty picks up the vial and sniffs it, her nose wrinkling. "Poison" she says. "It looks like the good Vintner was wanted by both sides."

Summary: [info]evilben and [info]giantlaser are DEAD.

  • Post a new comment

    Error

    Anonymous comments are disabled in this journal

    switch
     
    Help
  • 58 comments

[info]creepyduck

October 24 2005, 20:53:09 UTC 6 years ago

Quack?

[info]gorillashaman

October 24 2005, 21:25:11 UTC 6 years ago

I'm a little confused. Can I infer that the witch is still around and that they poisoned giantlaser, in addition to him being targeted by the werewolves?

If that's true, then the witch must still be alive, and have spent both potions. Which means parzanese isn't the witch. So now I'm just confused. Did he ever have any powers at all?

I also infer the hunter is still alive, because we've had no double deaths.

Anyone have any other information to add?

[info]creepyduck

October 24 2005, 22:02:45 UTC 6 years ago

Quack! Quack Quack Quack Quack! Quack Quack Quack? Quack Quack Quack QUACK!

[info]daedalus4096

October 24 2005, 22:06:24 UTC 6 years ago

Yeah, that is weird. I figured that Parzanese had to be the witch. Oh well.

[info]creepyduck

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]gorillashaman

October 24 2005, 21:44:12 UTC 6 years ago

Ok here's the assumptions I'm working from...

# werewolves don't attack werewolves in the night
parzanese=NORMAL
amphitrite27=NORMAL
stride=NORMAL
giantlaser=NORMAL
# gnatdbug / pianorain conundrum
gnatdbug=WOLF+pianorain=WOLF>=1
# werewolves don't vote for werewolves on day 1
gnatdbug=WOLF+infohazard=WOLF<=1
gnatdbug=WOLF+lorriet=WOLF<=1
gnatdbug=WOLF+maniakes=WOLF<=1
gnatdbug=WOLF+stride=WOLF<=1
gnatdbug=WOLF+the1mouse=WOLF<=1
the1mouse=WOLF+parzanese=WOLF<=1
lorriet=WOLF+gpeefalt=WOLF<=1
infohazard=WOLF+daedalus4096=WOLF<=1
flipperchaz=WOLF+chessiekitty=WOLF<=1
daedalus4096=WOLF+evilben=WOLF<=1
# werewolves don't vote for werewolves on day 2 EXCEPT DOGPILES
stride=WOLF+pianorain=WOLF<=1
pianorain=WOLF+stride=WOLF<=1
parzanese=WOLF+amphitrite27=WOLF<=1
infohazard=WOLF+giantlaser=WOLF<=1
amphitrite27=WOLF+maniakes=WOLF<=1
# werewolves don't vote for werewolves on day 3 EXCEPT DOGPILES
parzanese=WOLF+giantlaser=WOLF<=1
parzanese=WOLF+gpeefalt=WOLF<=1
stride=WOLF+pianorain=WOLF<=1
infohazard=WOLF+chessiekitty=WOLF<=1
giantlaser=WOLF+lorriet=WOLF<=1
evilben=WOLF+maniakes=WOLF<=1
# ditto day four
evilben=WOLF+daedalus4096=WOLF<=1
evilben=WOLF+maniakes=WOLF<=1
daedalus4096=WOLF+chessiekitty=WOLF<=1
# ditto day five
evilben=WOLF+maniakes=WOLF<=1
giantlaser=WOLF+hungryandhollow=WOLF<=1
daedalus4096=WOLF+chessiekitty=WOLF<=1
# pessimistic survival assumption
(chessiekitty=WOLF+daedalus4096=WOLF+hungryandhollow=WOLF+infohazard=WOLF+lorriet=WOLF+maniakes=WOLF)=2

The last is speculative. Since we're still alive, we know there's at least one dead WOLF. I'm assuming that there aren't two dead wolves. In other words, today is our last day, and the two wolves are amoung the living.

Here's the results I get:

chessiekitty 29%
daedalus4096 29%
hungryandhollow 50%
infohazard 21%
lorriet 36%
maniakes 36%

If you trust hungryandhollow, (i.e. add hungryandhollow=NORMAL):

chessiekitty 29%
daedalus4096 29%
infohazard 29%
lorriet 57%
maniakes 57%

Interestingly, there are no combinations there where NEITHER lorriet nor maniakes are WOLF if you trust hungryandhollow (AND all the other assumptions given up there).

If you don't trust hungryandhollow (i.e. instead add hungryandhollow=WOLF):

chessiekitty 29%
daedalus4096 29%
hungryandhollow 100%
infohazard 14%
lorriet 14%
maniakes 14%

There are no exclusive combinations in this set up.

I'm not sure I can draw any good conclusions from this.

[info]lorriet

October 24 2005, 22:05:48 UTC 6 years ago

I am most definitely not wolf, if that helps your calculations. Darn potions wasted. :P

[info]daedalus4096

October 24 2005, 22:18:36 UTC 6 years ago

Well, seeing as how the stakes have gotten much higher today, I can't see a way around it anymore. I'm the PRIEST, and unless Flipperchaz was a wolf, I can tell you that today is our last shot. The spirits I've performed last rites for are:

Gnatdbug: SEER
The1mouse: VILLAGER
Pianorain: WEREWOLF
Gpeefalt: BODYGUARD
Evilben: VILLAGER (poor bastard has the worst luck...)

I believe it's also safe to say that Stride was the NOTARY, given her dead-on description of the last wills. Until today, I also thought that Parzanese was the WITCH, but apparently that guess was wrong.

Since we're down to six people, if we don't get a wolf today, the village is finished. What say you all?

[info]lorriet

October 24 2005, 22:23:08 UTC 6 years ago

In case I wasn't clear in my previous entry, I am the WITCH. No way to prove that, really, but there it is.

[info]maniakes

October 25 2005, 02:35:12 UTC 6 years ago

I apologize for the delay; I had no access during class today.

I am the BODYGUARD

Nice try, wolf. Next time pick a role that's harder to falsify.

vote daedalus4096

Will the real PRIEST please stand up?

[info]daedalus4096

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]gorillashaman

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]maniakes

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]gorillashaman

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]maniakes

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]maniakes

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]maniakes

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]maniakes

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]chessiekitty

October 24 2005, 22:39:35 UTC 6 years ago

Image hosted by Photobucket.com

Image hosted by Photobucket.com

[info]creepyduck

October 24 2005, 22:57:13 UTC 6 years ago

QUACK! QUACK Quack Quack!

[info]chessiekitty

October 24 2005, 22:42:45 UTC 6 years ago

Sorry about that- I just had the urge to take pictures of some of my devil ducks (the pirate is my favorite).

Anyway- Just in case Daedalus is telling the truth- and I'm not so sure about that. I guess I'll come out of my little NRA closet. I'm the HUNTER. I have absolutely no way of proving that, of course.

I was going to keep my choice from last time, but I'll change it to vote infohazard. For now anyway.

[info]chessiekitty

October 24 2005, 22:49:27 UTC 6 years ago

If we believe the three of us that came out- then that leaves infohazard, hungryandhollow, and maniakes. According to daedalus, two of them are wolves. I'm changing my vote. Not necessarily because I don't think infohazard can be a wolf, but because hungryandhollow seems not quite like himself this game. Reminds me of when I was a wolf and double guessed all my posts and comments. So, unvote infohazard and vote hungryandhollow.

[info]gorillashaman

October 24 2005, 23:29:51 UTC 6 years ago

I concur. vote hungryandhollow, at least for now:

lorriet's claim is believeable; the witch save/poison this game is consistant with a new player (no offense, lorriet, I just don't think any of the experienced players would have gone for the save on night one).

daedalus4096's claim is a little shakier; a lot of folks seemed to be undecided about the "pianorain is a WOLF" theory. If you run the tool with lorriet=NORMAL&daedalus4096=WOLF, you get hungryandhollow as 67% chance of wolfiness (and incidentally, me 0%, which I like). If you run the tool with lorriet=NORMAL&daedalus4096=NORMAL, plus all the attendant claims, you get hungryandhollow and maniakes tied at 60%, and me and chessiekitty tied at 40%.

Since hungryandhollow comes out high in either case, I'm voting for him.

[info]lorriet

October 24 2005, 23:54:48 UTC 6 years ago

God I hate being a newb. :P But he said he was the seer! And, and, what if he had been, then I'd have saved someone important. :P

But yeah. No offense taken. :)

[info]gorillashaman

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]creepyduck

October 24 2005, 22:59:53 UTC 6 years ago

Quack! Quack! Quack!

The duck pulls out a large cannister and places it on the ground before him, then it pulls out a large card which says:

"I've come for Evil Ben. We need to make more Evil Ben Snacks back at Millers Hollow. Please deposit his remains here."

Quack!

[info]chessiekitty

October 24 2005, 23:01:14 UTC 6 years ago

Another reason to go vegetarian again...

[info]creepyduck

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

October 25 2005, 02:32:52 UTC 6 years ago

Just to make sure people have seen it, the PRIEST, the WITCH, and the HUNTER have all come out today. Since it's game over unless we get a wolf today, if anyone would like to dispute any of these claims, please do so ASAP. Waiting at this point only hurts the village.

[info]maniakes

October 25 2005, 02:35:55 UTC 6 years ago

As I posted above, I am disputing your claim.

[info]daedalus4096

October 25 2005, 02:41:07 UTC 6 years ago

And in doing so, you've reduced everyone else's voting choices from five to two. In all honesty, I'm rather surprised you of all people didn't see that.

[info]maniakes

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]maniakes

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]maniakes

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]maniakes

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]maniakes

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]gorillashaman

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]maniakes

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]gorillashaman

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]gorillashaman

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]gorillashaman

6 years ago

  • Loading...

[info]daedalus4096

October 25 2005, 04:28:54 UTC 6 years ago

Well, I'm going to bed now, and I don't know if I'll be up before the final vote tally. I've done all I can to give you all the best odds possible. All I can do now is hope you make the right choice. At least you won't have to wait long to find out if you made the wrong one. :)

[info]chessiekitty

October 25 2005, 04:48:35 UTC 6 years ago

Aw f**k! Now I'm totally confused. And probably the wolves' next target.

My theory was that by saying what I did yesterday, if I was correct and Daedalus was a wolf, then I would not be eaten. If I was incorrect, then I would. But then he came out as the priest. But he could very easily be lying. I do believe lorriet though. With me and her being villagers, that leaves a 50/50 chance for her and me to choose a wolf.
Bear with me while I try to sort this out:

If there are still two wolves left and we lynch a villager and I get eaten, and I kill a villager, then it's 1 villager to 2 wolves.

If we lynch a villager and I get eaten and I kill a wolf it will be 2 villagers and one wolf.

Same above but I don't get eaten, then we tie, but we still get one more lynching vote.

To save my sanity (some of us do not like computing dozens upon dozens of possibilities), I'm stopping there at the least favorable outcome for the next lynching (2 wolves and lynching a villager).

I've lost my train of thought. I really was going somewhere with this.

unvote hungryandhollow and vote daedalus4096

But it is odd for H&H to not have posted yet.

[info]gorillashaman

October 25 2005, 13:49:23 UTC 6 years ago

Alrighty, I've been up running simulations for the last hour. I'm still convinced hungryandhollow is a wolf (see previous posts). I'm also convinced maniakes is NOT a wolf. A sucky BODYGUARD, but not a wolf. It's a shame the real PRIEST is dead, because having a competing set of claims would have made this a lot easier to figure out.

unvote abstain and vote daedalus4096

I'll likely be in meetings at work all this morning.

[info]lorriet

October 25 2005, 14:26:33 UTC 6 years ago

Blah. This is so confusing.

vote daedalus4096

[info]lupusintabula

October 25 2005, 18:05:01 UTC 6 years ago

Post closed.
Create an Account
Forgot your login or password?
Facebook Twitter More login options
English • Español • Deutsch • Русский…